Recent simulations of 2019 end-of-season corn yield potential and real-time crop stage for 37 locations across the U.S. Corn Belt showed that lower yields due to late planting will probably not occur.
The simulations used the University of Nebraska-Lincoln Hybrid-Maize crop model in collaboration with faculty and extension educators from 10 universities.
According to the report, corn is still in vegetative stages throughout most of the region.
For the week ending July 21, the USDA’s National Agricultural Statistics Service, reported that corn condition rated 1% very poor, 4 poor, 18 fair, 62 good, and 15 excellent. Corn silking was 40%, well behind 80 last yea and 70 for the five-year average. Dough was 2%, behind 19 last year and 10 average.
According to the simulations, although it is still too early to make strong inferences about end-of-season yields for irrigated, an analysis of the data showed there is not a high probability of lower yields due to late planting, but could change depending upon temperature during the next four weeks.
For non-irrigated corn, the report said the scenario is diverse across regions, with above-average yields in the western fringe of the region. Temperature and rainfall during the rest of July and early August will likely determine the trend for the other rainfed sites.
In Grand Island, as of July 24, there had been 5.21 inches of precipitation, which is more than 2 inches above the 30-year average. The average daily temperature was 1.7 degrees above the 30-year average.
After a blistering streak of hot weather, temperatures earlier this week were below average with highs in upper 70s and lows in the lower 80s with nighttime lows in the low 60s and upper 50s.
The cooler temperatures brought much needed relief to area crops that were behind in their development and were impacted by the very warm temperatures.
The report said corn is still in the vegetative stage in most parts of the Corn Belt, except for east Kansas and southeast Nebraska where corn has reached silking. Sites in the northern and eastern fringes of the region (North Dakota, Michigan, Ohio and Indiana) are well behind the rest of the locations. All locations are running behind last year’s corn development.
For irrigated corn at most sites, the report said there is no clear indication that the late planting this year by itself set a high probability of low yield from the get-go. Weather conditions during the rest of July and August will provide a clearer indication of this year’s expected yield.
For non-irrigated corn, the report said there is a low probability of below-average yields this year.
“There is a high probability of above-average yield in western and Central Nebraska, northeastern Kansas, eastern North Dakota, southwestern Minnesota, and central Illinois,” the report said. “In contrast, at this point of the season, there are no sites with high probability of below-average yield across the US Corn Belt, but this may change depending on precipitation and temperature during the rest of July and August.”
The forecasts do not take into consideration problems with stand emergence, hail or flooding damage, replanting situations, disease, or nitrate leaching. In fields negatively affected by these constraints, actual yields will be lower than estimates provided here.
The report said it is “important to keep in mind that yield forecasts are not field specific and, instead, represent an estimate of average on-farm yield for a given location and surrounding area in absence of the yield-reducing factors mentioned here.”