Weather concerns have producers worried as crops maturing slowly

A recent spell of warm weather has helped push area crops closer to maturity, but uncertainty about the forecast going into harvest season has Al Dutcher, University of Nebraska-Lincoln state climatologist, concerned.

"A lot of catching up was done last week, but still it's going to require a couple more weeks of this type of weather to get everybody feeling comfortable, especially that very late planted and replanted corn," he said.

The U.S. Department of Agriculture's Nebraska weather and crop report for the week ending Sept. 21 reported corn conditions 73 percent good or excellent, below last year's 81 percent rating. Irrigated fields were reported 78 percent good or excellent and dryland fields 68 percent good or excellent, both down from a year before.

What concerns Dutcher, especially about the late planted and replanted corn, is that only 21 percent of the state's corn was rated mature compared to last year's 64 percent, and 11 days behind the 53 percent five year average.

Ninety-five percent of the corn has dented, which is behind both last year and the five year average. Also, only 2 percent of the corn has been harvested, which is behind last year and the five year average.

Extremely rainy conditions during spring and early summer made planting conditions difficult and flooding caused farmers to replant some fields.

In Grand Island, nearly 25 inches of rain fell during April, May and June, nearly 12 inches above normal for that three month period.

Still, Nebraska's corn crop is forecast at 1.37 billion bushels, which would be the second largest crop on record.

But, whether the corn crop reaches that estimate is still an unknown and at the mercy of the weather.

What many producers are hoping for is a repeat of last year, when in Grand Island the first freeze of 32 degrees or below took place on Oct. 26, according to the National Weather Service in Hastings.

The weather service reports that Sept. 26 is the date Grand Island averages a temperature of 36 degrees, Oct. 8 for 32 degrees and Oct. 15 for 28 degrees.

The weather service has the low forecasted into the mid-50s through next week with highs in the 80s, which is above seasonal norms. Highs this time of year average in the mid-70s and upper 40s.

"The big thing, as we go forward, is what will the weather do," Dutcher said.

But, when Dutcher looks at the upcoming weather models, there's a high degree of variability.

"When I look at the model in the morning and then look at the updated model in the afternoon, they are not even close in terms of what they are projecting," he said. "One says we stay warm, while the other says we stay cold."

And for Dutcher that high degree of variability is "pretty scary."

"I have very low confidence, once we get out a few days, in what the weather is going to do," Dutcher said.

He said the models are "hinting" that there's going to be a period of inclement weather, but whether it's going to be cold or wet, is still unknown.

With the forecast now calling for above normal temperatures and dry conditions through the beginning of next week, rain could be in the forecast for next week.

But, then again, a Canadian cold front may bring a spell of freezing temperatures, but Dutcher said that's more likely east of Nebraska, in the heart of the nation's Corn Belt.

"We are on the dividing line," he said.

The saving grace, he said, with the corn crop lagging in maturing, has been the warmer weather.

With the warmer weather in the forecast, Dutcher said corn maturity could climb 30 percent or higher next week, but still be well behind normal maturity dates.

"But it's still a full 50 percent of where it should be," he said.

Dutcher said he has "no confidence' is forecasting how long this well needed warm spell is going to last.

"It's going to break, but the question is when and the models don't give me a firm bearing on that," he said.

And with a lot riding on the corn crop for Nebraska farmers who are struggling with the high costs of raising the crop, a devastating, sudden change of weather before the crop matures would cause lower yields.

"There are a lot of fingers crossed right now," Dutcher said. "A hard killing freeze is coming, but we just don't know when."

While temperatures should cool next week, Dutcher said those colder temperatures should stay east of Nebraska.

"That puts us in better shape than our counterparts in the east," Dutcher said. "But I think we may be fortunate if we go into mid-October without a hard freeze. If we get to mid-October, I think the damage will be very limited."

The state weather and crop report said that soybean conditions are 69 percent good or excellent, well below last year's 82 percent. Soybeans turning color, 81 percent, is behind last year and the five year average, as well as soybeans dropping leaves (37 percent).

 Soybean production in Nebraska is forecast at 226 million bushels, down 4 percent from last month but 18 percent above last year. 

Sorghum conditions (76 percent good or excellent) were also lagging compared to last year and the five year average.

"I think the vast majority of the soybeans are going to be safe, it's the corn that's going to be a concern," Dutcher said.

The other concern Dutcher has is weather conditions during harvest, especially if wet weather from the west dominates the local weather scene.

"All of these models indicate that once that wet weather comes in, it's going to be a very, very slow process for the system to move out," he said. "We could have considerable periods of inclement weather and the concern is how much precipitation with that inclement weather is going to occur. If we start getting three or four days of heavier precipitation and 2 to 4 inches or rainfall, then we've got harvest problems."