Nebraska's wheat crop drops by 3 percent

Nebraska's wheat crop is down 3 percent from last year's crop, according to the U.S. Department of Agriculture's National Agricultural Statistics Service, Nebraska field office.

Based on May 1 conditions, Nebraska's 2008 winter wheat crop is forecast at 81.4 million bushels. Average yield is forecast at 44 bushels per acre, up 1 bushel from last year and 3.9 bushels above the ten-year average.

Acreage to be harvested for grain is estimated at 1.85 million acres, down 110,000 acres or 6 percent from last year, according to the report.

This would be 95 percent of the planted acres, compared to 96 percent harvested last year and the ten-year average of 93 percent.

The May 4 wheat condition was rated 66 percent good to excellent, above both last year and average.

Crop development was about 11 days behind last year and normal due to cooler temperatures during April.

As of May 4, subsoil moisture supplies were near last year but above the five-year average.

Nationwide, the USDA reported Friday that winter wheat production is forecast at 1.78 billion bushels, up 17 percent from 2007.

Expected area for harvest as grain or seed totals 40.2 million acres, up 12 percent from last year, the USDA reported.

Based on May 1 conditions, the U.S. yield is forecast at 44.3 bushels per acre, up 2.1 bushels from the previous year.

According to the USDA, the 2008-09 U.S. wheat outlook is for higher production, lower exports and increased domestic use. Total wheat supplies are projected up only 4 percent because of historically low carry in.

Total wheat use, according to the USDA, is projected down 5 percent for 2008-09 as lower exports more than offset increased domestic use.

Food use is projected at 960 million bushels, up 10 million from the current year reflecting steady growth in domestic demand.

Feed and residual use is projected at 230 million bushels, up sharply from the 60 million projected for 2007-08, the report said. Larger supplies of soft red winter wheat and higher corn prices boost wheat feeding.

Exports, according to the USDA, are projected at 975 million bushels, down 24 percent from 2007-08. Ending stocks for 2008-09 are projected at 483 million bushels, more than double the current year's projected 239 million.

Global wheat production for 2008-09 is projected at a record 656 million tons, up 8 percent from 2007-08, and up 5 percent from the previous record in 2004-05.

Higher production is projected for most of the world's major exporting countries including Australia, Canada, EU-27 (current membership of the European Union), Russia and Ukraine.

Strong world prices and favorable weather in most of EU-27 and FSU-12 (former Soviet Union republics) raised production for 2008.

Production is also projected to be higher in Brazil, China and India. Partly offsetting that are reductions for Argentina and Kazakhstan.

The USDA also reported that Nebraska May 1 hay stocks  of 1.01 million tons are up 17 percent from last year but 13 percent  below the 10-year average.